Declining Interest Rates May Open Doors for First Time Homebuyers But Housing Prices Remain Steady

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As interest rates decline, parts of Canada's housing market may become more accessible to first-time buyers this fall, though prices are expected to remain flat. The market has been slow throughout the spring and summer, even after the Bank of Canada made multiple rate cuts. TD Bank economist Rishi Sondhi anticipates healthier sales in the fourth quarter of 2024 as lower interest rates open the door for more buyers, though activity is still lagging behind pre-pandemic levels due to high borrowing costs and elevated home values.

The Bank of Canada is expected to lower its policy rate to around 2.5% by 2025. As some buyers hold out for additional rate cuts, others may move forward, leading to increased competition in the market. More buyers could intensify competition, potentially driving prices higher. However, activity is unlikely to flood the market, as many remain cautious. Sondhi predicts affordability will improve but still remain challenging.

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